About two years have passed since the shortage panic of summer 2024, now known as the "Reiwa rice crisis." Since then, rice prices in Japan have been through a historic spike and a sharp correction — and they are at a turning point. Using the weekly supermarket price survey published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (the average price of a 5 kg bag) as our anchor, this article traces how prices doubled, how government reserve rice and surging imports pulled them back down, and what the 2026 harvest may bring.

What Was the "Reiwa Rice Crisis"?

It began in the summer of 2024. Panic buying triggered by a government advisory about a possible Nankai Trough megaquake, combined with thin distribution stocks after the previous year's extreme heat, left supermarket shelves across Japan short of rice in August and September. The episode was quickly dubbed the "Reiwa rice crisis" (Reiwa no kome sodo), echoing the "Heisei rice crisis" of 1993.

When the autumn 2024 harvest arrived, the shortage itself eased — but prices kept climbing. According to the government's FY2025 agriculture white paper, the retail price of rice in May 2025 reached 4,260 yen per 5 kg, roughly double the 2,127 yen of a year earlier. For a staple that most households buy every month, a doubling within a year was an almost unprecedented shock to family budgets.

Two Peaks: What the Weekly Data Shows

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) publishes a weekly average selling price for a 5 kg bag of rice (tax included), based on POS data from about 1,000 supermarkets nationwide. This survey is the most fundamental data series for tracking Japan's rice prices — and it shows two distinct peaks over the past two years.

The first came in May 2025, when the average hit 4,285 yen in the week ending May 18 — a record at the time. Prices then fell back to the mid-3,000s over the summer as government reserve rice reached shelves. But when the expensive 2025 crop arrived that autumn, prices climbed again, reaching 4,416 yen in the week of December 29, 2025 to January 4, 2026 — the highest level since the current survey began in 2022.

Since then, 2026 has been a story of steady declines. In the most recent week, June 29 to July 5, the average was 3,458 yen — down 96 yen (2.7%) from the week before and below 3,500 yen for the first time in about a year and a half (latest data as of mid-July 2026). That is nearly 1,000 yen cheaper than the New Year peak. The key milestones:

  • Week ending May 18, 2025: ¥4,285 — a record high at the time
  • Summer 2025: down to the ¥3,500–3,600 range as reserve rice hit shelves
  • Week of Dec 29, 2025–Jan 4, 2026: ¥4,416 — the highest since the survey began in 2022
  • Week of June 1–7, 2026: ¥3,644 — the downtrend firmly established
  • Week of June 29–July 5, 2026: ¥3,458 — below ¥3,500 for the first time in about 18 months

Government Reserve Rice: From Auctions to Direct Sales

The biggest policy lever behind the decline was the release of government reserve rice — the emergency stockpile Japan keeps for poor harvests and disasters. Starting in March 2025, the government auctioned off roughly 310,000 tons, but the rice moved slowly through collection agents and wholesalers and took a long time to reach store shelves.

So on May 26, 2025, MAFF switched to negotiated contracts, selling directly to retailers and cutting out the middle layers. According to reports at the time, the selling price was 10,700 yen per 60 kg of brown rice (before tax) — roughly half the auction price — with a target shelf price of about 2,000 yen per 5 kg. The bags appeared in supermarkets nationwide from June, and eligibility was expanded from major retailers to smaller shops and rice dealers, and then to restaurant, catering, and institutional food operators. Total releases in 2025, auctions included, came to about 590,000 tons.

In 2026 the program has moved into its wind-down phase. According to MAFF, deliveries under the negotiated contracts were completed by the end of the 2025 fiscal year (March 2026), with more than 96% of the contracted volume sold or used. Rebuilding the depleted stockpile has begun: per Nikkei and other reports, tenders for 207,521 tons of 2026-crop rice have been fully awarded, which should lift stocks from about 320,000 tons back to about 530,000 tons — still only around half the 1-million-ton target. A budget has also been set aside to buy back 150,000 tons of the released rice, with the timing to be decided based on supply and demand.

The Import Surge: How Calrose Earned a Place on the Shelf

The other big change is the boom in private-sector rice imports. Rice imported outside Japan's state-trading system carries a tariff of 341 yen per kilogram, which historically kept private imports to only 600–800 tons a year. With domestic prices so high, imports became viable even after the tariff: private imports in 2025 reached 96,834 tons, about 95 times the previous year's 1,015 tons and the largest volume since the current system began in 1999.

The monthly peak was 26,397 tons in July 2025, with the large majority coming from the United States. Calrose, a medium-grain variety grown in California, sold for around 3,000 yen per 5 kg while domestic rice topped 4,000 yen, and it carved out a regular spot on supermarket shelves and in restaurant chains. Its lighter, less sticky texture is marketed as a good match for curry, fried rice, and other strongly seasoned dishes. The price gap has narrowed in 2026 as domestic rice has fallen, but the fact that imported rice now has its own shelf space is a lasting structural legacy of the crisis.

The 2026 Harvest: Planting Data and the Price Outlook

The key variable from here is the 2026 crop, which reaches stores this autumn. MAFF's planting-intention survey (as of the end of April 2026) puts the planted area for table rice at 1,363,000 hectares, maintaining the sharply expanded level of 2025, when farmers responded to high prices. That translates into roughly 7.33 million tons of production — more than 200,000 tons above MAFF's demand projection.

Inventories are also building up. At a June 2026 press conference, the agriculture minister noted private-sector stocks of 2.49 million tons and an easing supply-demand balance, and stocks are projected to reach 3.29 million tons by the end of October 2026 — the largest in a decade. Reflecting this combination of higher output and higher stocks, early-season new rice from Kagoshima — the Koshihikari crop that serves as a pricing bellwether for producers nationwide — has been reported at about 20% below last year's level.

Wholesale benchmarks tell the same story: the average "relative transaction price" for the 2025 crop set a record of roughly 35,800 yen per 60 kg, but has been declining since its October 2025 peak. Some reports now float the possibility of retail prices dipping below 3,000 yen per 5 kg this autumn. Weather, crop conditions, and policy could all change the picture, so these should be read as projections rather than certainties.

How Households Adapted: Brand Rice, Blends, and Imports

Two years of high prices have visibly changed how people shop. MAFF's weekly survey tracks single-variety "brand" rice separately from blended rice and other types, and in a week in early March 2026 the gap was clear: about 4,100 yen for brand rice versus about 3,750 yen for blends — a difference of 300 to 400 yen. During the peak, many shoppers traded down to blends, reserve rice, or imports, and store shelves diversified accordingly.

Even with prices easing, the habit of choosing by price rather than by brand has persisted, and blended and imported rice have kept their place in the aisle. As of July 2026, a typical supermarket offers roughly these options:

  • Brand rice (single-variety, such as Koshihikari): the classic choice for flavor; a few hundred yen above average, with larger price swings when the new crop arrives
  • Blended rice (multiple origins): typically 300–400 yen cheaper than brand rice; the value pick for households that eat a lot of rice
  • Imported rice (Calrose and others): from around ¥3,000 per 5 kg; well suited to curry, fried rice, and other seasoned dishes
  • No-wash rice and bulk bags: musenmai skips the rinsing step, and 10 kg bags cut the cost per kilo

For Visitors and Foreign Residents: From Onigiri to Eating Out

High rice prices rippled into everything made with rice. Convenience-store onigiri (rice balls) have seen repeated price hikes: mainstream items now sit in the 150–200 yen range, and some premium fillings top 300 yen (as of 2026, per Tokyo Shimbun and other reports). In dining, rising costs for rice, nori seaweed, and labor mean roughly 60% of restaurant companies are reported to be raising prices in fiscal 2026 — touching gyudon beef bowls, teishoku set meals, and other rice-centered menus.

For travelers and foreign residents, though, the supermarket rice aisle is one of the best windows onto everyday Japan. Prices are typically displayed per 5 kg bag with tax included, and labels show the variety (Koshihikari, Akitakomachi, and many more), the growing region, and whether the bag is single-variety or blended. In September and October, "shinmai" (new-crop rice) labels appear on shelves — and the sheer regional variety of brands is Japanese rice culture in miniature.

As of July 2026, the average price stands at 3,458 yen per 5 kg — still well above the roughly 2,000 yen of pre-crisis days, but nearly 1,000 yen off the peak, and this autumn's new-crop prices are the next thing to watch. MAFF's survey updates every week, so if you buy rice in Japan, try comparing "this week's average" with the price tags in front of you. It is a data-driven way to feel where Japan's food economy stands right now.

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